Overview of power lithium battery market in 2020

In 2020, the total installed capacity of domestic power lithium batteries will be 63.638gwh, with a slight increase of 2.3% over the same period last year, which can be said to be basically the same as that in 2019. The low performance of domestic new energy vehicles in the first half of 2020 is the main reason for the less than expected growth of installed capacity. Although the production and sales of domestic new energy vehicles have recovered rapidly since the second half of 2020, due to the low base in the first half of the year, especially before July 2020, the monthly installed capacity of power lithium batteries has a negative growth year-on-year, which is a serious drag on the annual installed capacity.

However, globally, the installed capacity of global power lithium battery will be 137gwh in 2020, and China's installed capacity will still account for about half, which is still the largest power lithium battery consumer market in the world.
From the perspective of installed capacity types, the biggest changes in the domestic power lithium battery market in 2020 are the decrease in the proportion of lithium ternary and the increase in the proportion of lithium iron phosphate. According to the preliminary statistics, in 2020, the installed capacity of lithium-ion battery is 38.86gwh, a year-on-year decrease of 4.1%; while the installed capacity of lithium iron phosphate battery is 24.38gwh, a year-on-year increase of 20.6%. At the same time, lithium iron phosphate battery is the only one among the major lithium battery varieties to achieve positive growth. From the perspective of market share, the proportion of ternary lithium battery decreased from 65.1% in 2019 to 61.1% in 2020, while the proportion of LiFePO4 increased from 33.4% in 2019 to 38.3%. However, the installed capacity of lithium manganate and lithium titanate batteries, which are already relatively small, continues to decline and has been completely marginalized. We believe that the substantial decline of subsidies in 2020 will make new energy passenger vehicle enterprises seek more economical lithium battery installation instead of completely focusing on the improvement of energy density, which makes lithium iron phosphate battery with price advantage widely used in new energy passenger vehicles again. In 2020, several domestic hot new energy models such as BYD Han, domestic Tesla Model 3, Hongguang mini, etc. all adopt lithium iron phosphate batteries. Considering that subsidies for new energy vehicles will continue to decline in 2021, the cost pressure will make the market of LiFePO4 battery have the potential to continue to grow.
From the perspective of power lithium battery's installed supporting models, passenger cars are still the main force of the installed capacity, especially pure electric passenger cars account for 67.7% of the total installed capacity of lithium battery, and the installed capacity of passenger cars continues to show a significant growth trend. Although the proportion of pure electric buses and pure electric special vehicles is not small, they continue to show a downward trend. Obviously, the key factor affecting the change of power lithium battery installed capacity in the future is pure electric passenger cars.