Research Report on lithium battery industry in 2020

New energy vehicles have been driven by policy introduction and subsidy stimulus. In the early days, the government took the lead in using new energy vehicles with the g-terminal and b-terminal as pilot projects. Then, the government encouraged the car enterprises to lay out in the direction of electric by subsidies, promoted the continuous penetration of new energy vehicles to the C-end, and formed and steadily expanded the market. Since 2019, the subsidy policy has entered the declining period. The new energy vehicle industry development plan (2021-2035) and the new double integral policy have been issued successively, which further shows the determination of China to improve the standard and standard market to firmly develop new energy vehicles, which indicates that the new energy vehicle market is changing from subsidy incentive to product driven direction. After 2022, subsidy ends, and the market enters the stage of full market competition. The C-terminal will become the main driving force for the growth of new energy vehicle market.

The latest energy vehicle policy in China is implemented, which leads to the transformation of complete market. The policy encourages the automobile industry to save energy and reduce consumption, promote the penetration of new energy vehicles, improve the market access standards, gradually eliminate marginal enterprises that are not recognized by the market and have relatively weak technical strength, and clearly propose the goal of improving infrastructure construction and building a new industrial ecology.

The promotion effect of new energy vehicles in subsidy period is remarkable, and the market response to policy decline is obvious. In the early years, with the support of policy, the domestic new energy vehicle market exploded. In 2018, the production and sales of new energy vehicles completed 1.27 million and 1.256000 respectively, up 59.9% and 61.7% respectively. According to the statistics of China Automobile Industry Association, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles in China exceeded 5% in the first half of 2019, indicating that new energy vehicles have formed a market-oriented basis under the stimulation of subsidy policies for many years. The subsidy policy began to decline sharply, and the vehicles with driving mileage below 250km were no longer subsidized, the maximum subsidy for single vehicle decreased by 25000 yuan, and the sales volume of new energy vehicles declined significantly in the second half of the year, with the first negative growth.

After the outbreak stabilized, the production and sales of new energy vehicles have recovered significantly, ushering in the turning point of market-oriented growth, and the sales volume of new energy vehicles will reach 1367000 in 2020. Since the beginning of 2020, COVID-19 has been affected by the new energy vehicle market. The new energy vehicle market has continued to be in a depressed state. In the second half of the year, the epidemic has stabilized, the economy has recovered, and the auto industry has warmed up. The sales of new energy vehicles began to achieve a positive growth in the same period in July, and the driving force of marketization appeared. In 2020, the production of new energy vehicles will be 1366000, an increase of 10% year-on-year, and sales of 1.367 million, an increase of 11% year-on-year. In December, the production and sales of new energy vehicles completed 235000 and 24000 respectively, up 57.4% and 51.7% respectively.

The explosion of models is frequent. In 2020, Tesla Model 3 sold 137459 vehicles in total to become the annual sales champion. With its high cost performance, Wuling Hongguang Mini EV has ranked the first monthly sales for four consecutive months since its delivery in August, with 112758 vehicles in the whole year, ranking second. The sales volume of the whole year is 46774, 45626 and 41219 respectively. The new generation forces that are concerned also hand over excellent report cards. Ideal one and Weilai ES6 sell 32624 and 27945 vehicles respectively, ranking seventh and ninth.

It is expected that the sales volume of new energy vehicles will reach 1.9 million in 2021, and the annual compound growth rate will reach 36% in the next five years. Under the extended subsidy policy and market driven forces, the market-oriented growth inflection point will be ushered in in 2021, and the production and marketing will return to the high growth mode. With the further exploration of the price of power battery, the era of purchasing parity between new energy vehicles and fuel vehicles is expected to come ahead of time. The C-terminal will continue to work hard, and it can be expected that the production and sales of new energy vehicles will increase more optimistic.

The proportion of class A and above models has been significantly improved, and the market structure optimization helps the new energy vehicles to continue to penetrate. In the subsidy period, new energy small vehicles and minicars with higher mileage have more price advantages under the same charged capacity, which has become the main force to promote market growth, and production and marketing occupy the main share. Since the subsidy policy gradually declined in 2019, the sales volume of new energy vehicles has not been reduced by a small margin since the high-speed growth momentum before. However, the proportion of class A and above models has increased significantly, and the concentration of models has further decreased, and the product richness has been improved, and the diversified market demand is gradually met.