New energy - Research Report on lithium battery industry in 2020

          New energy vehicles have been driven by market instead of policy introduction and subsidy stimulation. In the early stage, the government took the lead in using new energy vehicles by taking the g-end and b-end as the pilot, and then the government encouraged the automobile enterprises to lay out in the direction of electrification in the form of subsidies, so as to promote the continuous penetration of new energy vehicles to the C-end, thus forming the market and steadily expanding the capacity. Since 2019, the subsidy policy has entered a declining period. The introduction of the new energy vehicle industry development plan (2021-2035) and the new version of the double integral policy further shows the determination of improving the standards and standardizing the market and firmly developing new energy vehicles in China, and marks that the new energy vehicle market is changing from subsidy incentive to product driven. After 2022, the subsidy will end and the market will enter a stage of complete market competition. The C-end will become the main driving force for the growth of new energy vehicle market.

          China's latest new energy vehicle policy is implemented to guide the complete market-oriented transformation. The policy encourages the automobile industry to save energy and reduce consumption, promotes the penetration of new energy vehicles, improves the market access standards, gradually eliminates the marginal enterprises that are not recognized by the market and have relatively weak technical strength, and clearly puts forward the goal of improving infrastructure construction and building a new industrial ecology.

          During the subsidy period, the promotion of new energy vehicles has achieved remarkable results, the policy has declined, and the market reaction is obvious. In the early years, with the support of policies, the domestic new energy vehicle market experienced explosive growth. In 2018, the production and sales of new energy vehicles were 1.27 million and 1.256 million respectively, with a year-on-year growth of 59.9% and 61.7% respectively. According to the statistics of China Automobile Industry Association, in the first half of 2019, the penetration rate of China's new energy vehicle market exceeded 5%, indicating that new energy vehicles have formed a market-oriented foundation under the stimulation of years of subsidy policies. Then the subsidy policy began to decline sharply, and the vehicles with driving range less than 250km were no longer subsidized. The maximum amount of subsidy for single vehicle decreased by 25000 yuan. In the second half of the year, the sales of new energy vehicles declined significantly, showing negative growth for the first time.

After the stabilization of the epidemic situation, the production and sales of new energy vehicles have significantly recovered, ushering in the turning point of market-oriented growth, and the sales of new energy vehicles will reach 1.367 million in 2020. Since the beginning of 2020, COVID-19 has been affected by the new energy vehicle market. The new energy vehicle market has continued to be in a depressed state. In the second half of the year, the epidemic has stabilized, the economy has recovered, and the auto industry has warmed up. The sales of new energy vehicles began to achieve a positive growth in the same period in July, and the driving force of marketization appeared. In 2020, the production of new energy vehicles will be 1.366 million, a year-on-year increase of 10%, and the sales will be 1.367 million, a year-on-year increase of 11%. Among them, the production and sales of new energy vehicles in December were 235000 and 248000 respectively, with a year-on-year growth of 57.4% and 51.7% respectively.

There are many popular models. In 2020, a total of 137459 Tesla Model 3 vehicles will be sold, becoming the annual sales champion. Wuling Hongguang Mini EV has won the first place in monthly sales for four consecutive months since it was delivered in August, with annual sales of 112758 vehicles, ranking second. Euler black cat, GAC aion s and BYD Xinqin EV ranked third to fifth, with annual sales of 46774, 45626 and 41219 respectively. The high-profile new car making force also handed in excellent report cards. Ideal one and Weilai ES6 sold 32624 and 27945 vehicles respectively, ranking seventh and ninth.

It is estimated that the sales volume of new energy vehicles is expected to reach 1.9 million in 2021, and the compound annual growth rate will reach 36% in the next five years. Under the extended subsidy policy and market driven forces, 2021 will usher in the turning point of market-oriented growth, and the production and marketing will return to the high growth mode. As the price of power battery goes down further, the era of purchasing parity of new energy vehicles and fuel vehicles is expected to arrive ahead of time, and the C-end will continue to make efforts, so we can expect more optimistic growth in the production and sales of new energy vehicles.

The proportion of class A and above vehicles increased significantly, and the optimization of market structure helped new energy vehicles continue to penetrate. In the subsidy period, new energy small cars and mini cars with higher mileage under the condition of the same electrified capacity have more price advantages and become the main force driving the market growth, with production and sales occupying the main share. Since the gradual decline of the subsidy policy in 2019, the sales volume of new energy vehicles has lost the previous high-speed growth momentum, and has declined slightly. However, the proportion of class A and above models has increased significantly, and the concentration of models has further decreased, and the product richness has improved, gradually meeting the diversified market demand.